"Quaking" on the potential fall out to the Camera industry

[DWessel]

To all you armchair quarterbacks and those who just like to prognosticate, I'm curious to see what effect people think the recent earth quake in Japan will have on the camera industry.

My impression is that Sony, Canon, and Nikon are undoubtedly experiencing some interruption in production given the current natural disaster. What do you think the fall out will be? Delayed introduction of new models? Higher prices on cameras and lenses? Lower prices on cameras and lenses (e.g. manufacturers saying we're still here and going strong)? Moves by non-Japanese camera and lens manufacturers to increase market share?

Let your opinions and even wild eyed guesses be known.

[DWessel]

Here's a link to a report by Adorama on the damage and issues facing Japanese camera manufacturers.

http://www.adorama.com/ALC/News.aspx...EmailALC030911

[DonSchap]

Darin,

the report kind of echoes what I put up a day or two, ago. Actually, it sounds a bit worse, in contrast.

Obviously, SONY has been tagged pretty badly. There is a significant opening for many companies to step up marketshare, if they are so moved ... because the direct competition has been reduced substantially. Will this opportunity last forever? Heck, depends on how aggressive the boardrooms get when things settle down a bit. SONY can make quick and powerful moves, if they want to re-seize the market. They have substantial resources. This is the land of the Warlords. These people know how to take a hit ... and this one is a big as they come.

Unfortunately, their pride is their Achilles' heel and a wise move can take advantage of that, if played properly. Even in the face of the bald-faced truth, the Japanese will "not lose face." Mark my words, this is a strategic situation for advancement that no one saw coming. Those brave enough to play the cards that have been dealt will win BIG! If they sit on their hands waiting for someone else to straighten things out ... they lose.

You ask for betting odds. I would rather pose that question to Las Vegas. Those sharks see all the odds ... and will bet on the winner. Put me in for 3:1 on SONY, that they will find a way to make it work, despite this incredible shift in fortune. They may just be able to put Nikon in check, for a few months, through sheer determination. Go on Mr. Stringer ... make our day.

[SONYNUT]

Japan is pretty screwed in more ways than one...the nuke thing is really going make life suck

[DonSchap]

I know this may sound a little creepy, but most disasters are.

They may need to create a mini-tsunami to get enough cooling water into that area. Just get everyone out, set off a huge depth-charge (probably a mini-nuke, NDB, or some new non-nuclear, high-yield explosive) for enough punch ... in that waterway next to the plant and ... KA-BAM! slop it in.

Attachment 56541

USS Agerholm (DD-826) (1962)
and exploded ASROC depth charge, off the coast of California

Resultant splash

Attachment 56542

It would be quick and dirty, yeah ... but, they are simply out of time. Desperate times call for desperate measures. This is the dated "I'm in a big ol' wartime hurry" way to deploy this weapon, but given some planning ... it could be a lot simpler, smaller and better thought out. I am just offering this concept to immediately get some results ... which, up to now, have been evaporating -> Get a lot of water in the hole! NOW!

Japan's Fukushima Nuclear Plant

Attachment 56543

The forest fire is right next to the river. Let's get the river to do some work for us!

As a "parting gift" to those responsible for screwing this all up ... they can hold the explosive, as form of seppuku.

[bascom]

http://www.steves-digicams.com/news/...d_to_rise.html

Cameras and Components in Short Supply - Prices Expected to Rise

"The quake in Japan has resulted in damage to manufacturing plants, work stoppages and, in some cases, total shutdowns. That means that the components that make up lenses, cameras, and even flash memory will be in short supply."

[SONYNUT]

Good thing we don't use film..........

[Panda Bear]

there is the opportunity to say there is, and attempt to get a profit bump by jacking up prices.