The Camera and Imaging Products Association (CIPA), which represents the various
Japanese camera manufacturers, has released their outlook for digital camera
sales in the years ahead. A summary:
- Units shipped in 2008 rose 19.3%, to 119,757,000. Digital SLRs were a big
part of that, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7%
- Overall camera shipments are expected to drop in 2009 by 0.7%; fixed lens
camera shipments are forecast to drop by 1.3%, but D-SLR sales will help
mitigate that, increasing by 6.8%
- Shipments are expected to increase in 2010 and 2011: fixed lens camera
should rise 2.4% year-over-year, with D-SLRs doing even better (8.2% in 2010,
6.6% in 2011)
More details are available after the jump.
2009-2011 Outlook on the Shipment Forecast by Product-Type Concerning Cameras
and Related Goods
The Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA, President: Tsuneji Uchida)
has announced the outlook on the shipment forecasts by product-type concerning
cameras and related goods for the term from 2009 to 2011.
I. Outlook on Shipments in 2009
1) Digital Cameras
The total shipments of digital cameras in 2008 (the cumulative total of shipments
from January to December) exceeded the performance in 2007 when shipments broke
through the 100 million unit mark for the first time since CIPA began compiling
statistics. A total of 119,757,000 units were shipped, representing an increase
of 19.3% on the previous year’s performance based on volume.
The growth was exhibited across both categories of product type with shipments
of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras reaching 9,687,000 units (a year-on-year
increase of 29.7%) and shipments of digital cameras with built-in lens reaching
110,070,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 18.5%).
Nevertheless, the effects of the rapid economic slowdown since the autumn of
2008 have begun to manifest themselves in the digital camera market. On the
basis of these
changes, the forecast for 2009 envisages total overall shipments including
digital cameras with built-in lens and the sales driver interchangeable lens
digital SLR cameras
declining by approximately 790,000 units to 118,971,000 units (a year-on-year
decrease of 0.7%).
In terms of the breakdown in shipments by product type, the forecast anticipates
shipments of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras increasing by approximately
660,000 units to 10,349,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 6.8%) and shipments
of digital cameras with built-in lens declining by approximately 1,450,000
units to
108,622,000 units (a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%).
2) Interchangeable Lenses for SLR Cameras
The total shipments of interchangeable lenses for SLR cameras in 2008 was
underpinned by significant growth in shipments of interchangeable lens digital
SLR
cameras associated with the expansion of the SLR camera user base. Lens shipments
exhibited firm growth with a total of 15,655,000 units shipped on a volume
basis (a
year-on-year increase of 25.1%).
The forecast for 2009 anticipates that lens shipments will continue to grow
due to the
continuation of sustained strong demand for interchangeable lens digital SLR
cameras.
Shipments are expected to increase by approximately 960,000 units to a total
of
16,610,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 6.1%).
II. Outlook on Shipments in 2010 and 2011
1) Digital Cameras
The forecast for total shipments of digital cameras in both 2010 and 2011
reflects the
effects of gradual moves toward economic recovery anticipated. Continued
overall
growth can be expected albeit at lower rates than the high levels recorded
up until 2008.
In view of the growth potential in Asia and Other Areas, the forecast envisages
total
shipments increasing in 2010 to 122,449,000 (a year-on-year increase of 2.9%)
and in
2011 to 125,954,000 (a year-on-year increase of 2.9% year-on-year).
By product type, the forecast anticipates that the sustained steady growth
in shipments
of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras will continue with 2010 shipments
reaching 11,242,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 8.6%) and 2011 shipments
totaling 12,029,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 7.0%). Shipments of digital
cameras with built-in lens are also predicted to increase with 2010 shipments
reaching
111,207,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 2.4%) and 2011 shipments totaling
113,925,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 2.4%).
2) Interchangeable Lenses for SLR Cameras
The forecast for total shipments of interchangeable lenses for SLR cameras
in both
2010 and 2011 envisages that the growth in lens shipments will track the
robust growth
path of interchangeable lens digital SLR cameras with 2010 shipments reaching
17,972,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 8.2%) and 2011 shipments totaling
19,151,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 6.6%).
In view of the unavoidable effects of the rapid economic slowdown on the shipment
forecast,
as described above, we will continuously assess the forecast based on updated
results and
announce a revised forecast on the basis of the results for the first quarter
of 2009.
