Rex914
12-09-2005, 12:52 AM
I thought it might be a neat idea to look back on what's gone on in 2005 (in terms of digital cameras) and see what happened and what trends occured. It might even surprise you here and there! :eek:
------------------------
January
January was a fairly busy month, but nothing really special was announced apart from... The Kodak EasyShare One was announced but didn't even arrive in stores until last month. WI-FI will probably be one of the few next big things in compact digicams.
February
PMA! This was a huge one with the Canon Digital Rebel XT announced and priced at $899. I don't want to open up old wounds, but here are a few of the more "eventful" threads regarding the XT. [1 (http://www.dcresource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4845),2 (http://www.dcresource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6384)] At this moment in time, DSLR's still cost over $1000 on average, even the E-300 kit. :)
A whole bunch of digicams were announced too as well as the Nikon D2Hs.
March
Kyocera leaves the digicam business, taking down Contax with it. The Digital Rebel XT receives rave reviews but is criticized for its ergonomics and design. The D50's manual is leaked. ;)
April
Canon finally introduces the S2 IS. Nikon drops a bomb and introduces the now famous D50 and the D70s. The D50 is met with snickering and criticism (http://www.dcresource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7268) due to its high pricetag and lack of differentiation with the D70s. Adobe CS2 released. DSLR prices still hold at around $1000 but begin dropping off.
May
Nothing interesting except that the Fuji F10 rises to major popularity due to its great high ISO capabilities but draws criticism for lack of manual controls.
June
D50 receives rave reviews and gets more endorsement. Pentax DL quietly introduced and criticized (do we see a trend here with new DSLR's and criticism?). DSLR prices start dropping to around $900 average. E-300 and Pentax DS really begin dropping in price.
July
Big month. Fuji S9000, Panasonic FZ30 are announced as well as the KM 5D which is received comparatively well by the community. DSLR prices drop yet again to $850 average.
August
Another huge month. Olympus introduces a load of cameras. Kodak introduces the P series cameras. Canon introduces a boatload of cameras including the 5D and the 1D Mark II n. The 5D is met with mixed response (as always). The new A6X0 series is received well. DSLR prices drop to $800 average. Average digicam price is about $250 (I'm guessing), down from about $300 a year ago.
September
Nikon announces a bunch of cameras but not the D200! Sony introduces the now well-received R1. Now it just needs to drop in price... Oly introduces the E-500, fixing up its much maligned design in the E-300. DSLR prices drop to $750 average.
October
Canon introduces a WI-FI enabled camera. Big camera recall due to a Sony messup. DSLR prices fall to $700 on average.
November
D200 and 18-200 VR announced. Enough said. :D
DSLR prices fall to $650 on average (for entry level). E-500 and 5D receive positive reviews.
December
Here we are!
Now that we're at the end of the year, lets see what's evolved over the course of the year.
#1 Digital SLR prices have plummeted from over $1000 at the beginning of the year for an entry level DSLR kit to about $650 today. That number keeps falling!
#2 High end ultrazooms and prosumer digicams have also fallen in price from a year ago. Remember the outrageously priced CP8800, 8400, A200, Pro 1, etc.? Cameras of this caliber (with much more functionality and build quality) now cost barely above $500. I'm talking about the FZ30, S9000, etc. A year ago, such cameras cost around $800-$1000.
#3 The low end hasn't seen much dip. $200 cameras still go for about that much.
#4 The midrange cameras have seen somewhat of a price drop from around $300 to $250, and functionality has gone up. The Canon PowerShot A610 represents a terrific value at $250. 5MP, manual controls, DIGIC II, swivel screen, 4x zoom for $250? Sign me up. The Fuji F10 is another star performer.
Who has "won" this year and who has "lost" in the non-DSLR market?
Canon, Kodak, Fuji, and Panasonic are on the rise, gaining market share. Nikon has stayed put, maybe gaining a little. Olympus, Pentax, KM, and the others have lost ground for one reason or another.
That's it for 2005. Now...
Predictions for 2006
I predict that we'll see several, not just one, sub-$500 DSLR introduced this year. By the end of the year, you may even be able to pick up a cheap DSLR for $400. Sounds ludicrous? We'll see. ;)
I predict that we'll see more cameras like the Sony R1. They won't take over the high end fixed-lens market, but they'll make more inroads. Perhaps Canon is thinking about introducing one.
We may finally see the ultimate ultrazoom camera, one that combines the positive merits of the FZ30, S9000, 815 and evades their flaws. This camera will be sold for $500.
The MP wars will continue on, but we'll see more advances in noise reduction and high ISO performance like we see in the Fuji F10.
Now for a bit of bad news. I predict a major slowdown in in digital camera sales. They've reached the point where they're good enough to last long enough not to be replaced every few years. A camera like the A610 or A95, if kept decently well, should last at least 5 years. Because there's less replacement going on, sales will simply slow overall.
But, I also predict that the high end market and DSLR segment will grow because some users want to step up from entry level models. This is a small chunk of users, but a substantial chunk nontheless. I wouldn't be surprised to see triple digit growth for the DSLR market and high double digit growth for prosumer/ultrazoom cameras.
That's all. What do you think? Do you agree with my predictions or will something else happen?
------------------------
January
January was a fairly busy month, but nothing really special was announced apart from... The Kodak EasyShare One was announced but didn't even arrive in stores until last month. WI-FI will probably be one of the few next big things in compact digicams.
February
PMA! This was a huge one with the Canon Digital Rebel XT announced and priced at $899. I don't want to open up old wounds, but here are a few of the more "eventful" threads regarding the XT. [1 (http://www.dcresource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4845),2 (http://www.dcresource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6384)] At this moment in time, DSLR's still cost over $1000 on average, even the E-300 kit. :)
A whole bunch of digicams were announced too as well as the Nikon D2Hs.
March
Kyocera leaves the digicam business, taking down Contax with it. The Digital Rebel XT receives rave reviews but is criticized for its ergonomics and design. The D50's manual is leaked. ;)
April
Canon finally introduces the S2 IS. Nikon drops a bomb and introduces the now famous D50 and the D70s. The D50 is met with snickering and criticism (http://www.dcresource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7268) due to its high pricetag and lack of differentiation with the D70s. Adobe CS2 released. DSLR prices still hold at around $1000 but begin dropping off.
May
Nothing interesting except that the Fuji F10 rises to major popularity due to its great high ISO capabilities but draws criticism for lack of manual controls.
June
D50 receives rave reviews and gets more endorsement. Pentax DL quietly introduced and criticized (do we see a trend here with new DSLR's and criticism?). DSLR prices start dropping to around $900 average. E-300 and Pentax DS really begin dropping in price.
July
Big month. Fuji S9000, Panasonic FZ30 are announced as well as the KM 5D which is received comparatively well by the community. DSLR prices drop yet again to $850 average.
August
Another huge month. Olympus introduces a load of cameras. Kodak introduces the P series cameras. Canon introduces a boatload of cameras including the 5D and the 1D Mark II n. The 5D is met with mixed response (as always). The new A6X0 series is received well. DSLR prices drop to $800 average. Average digicam price is about $250 (I'm guessing), down from about $300 a year ago.
September
Nikon announces a bunch of cameras but not the D200! Sony introduces the now well-received R1. Now it just needs to drop in price... Oly introduces the E-500, fixing up its much maligned design in the E-300. DSLR prices drop to $750 average.
October
Canon introduces a WI-FI enabled camera. Big camera recall due to a Sony messup. DSLR prices fall to $700 on average.
November
D200 and 18-200 VR announced. Enough said. :D
DSLR prices fall to $650 on average (for entry level). E-500 and 5D receive positive reviews.
December
Here we are!
Now that we're at the end of the year, lets see what's evolved over the course of the year.
#1 Digital SLR prices have plummeted from over $1000 at the beginning of the year for an entry level DSLR kit to about $650 today. That number keeps falling!
#2 High end ultrazooms and prosumer digicams have also fallen in price from a year ago. Remember the outrageously priced CP8800, 8400, A200, Pro 1, etc.? Cameras of this caliber (with much more functionality and build quality) now cost barely above $500. I'm talking about the FZ30, S9000, etc. A year ago, such cameras cost around $800-$1000.
#3 The low end hasn't seen much dip. $200 cameras still go for about that much.
#4 The midrange cameras have seen somewhat of a price drop from around $300 to $250, and functionality has gone up. The Canon PowerShot A610 represents a terrific value at $250. 5MP, manual controls, DIGIC II, swivel screen, 4x zoom for $250? Sign me up. The Fuji F10 is another star performer.
Who has "won" this year and who has "lost" in the non-DSLR market?
Canon, Kodak, Fuji, and Panasonic are on the rise, gaining market share. Nikon has stayed put, maybe gaining a little. Olympus, Pentax, KM, and the others have lost ground for one reason or another.
That's it for 2005. Now...
Predictions for 2006
I predict that we'll see several, not just one, sub-$500 DSLR introduced this year. By the end of the year, you may even be able to pick up a cheap DSLR for $400. Sounds ludicrous? We'll see. ;)
I predict that we'll see more cameras like the Sony R1. They won't take over the high end fixed-lens market, but they'll make more inroads. Perhaps Canon is thinking about introducing one.
We may finally see the ultimate ultrazoom camera, one that combines the positive merits of the FZ30, S9000, 815 and evades their flaws. This camera will be sold for $500.
The MP wars will continue on, but we'll see more advances in noise reduction and high ISO performance like we see in the Fuji F10.
Now for a bit of bad news. I predict a major slowdown in in digital camera sales. They've reached the point where they're good enough to last long enough not to be replaced every few years. A camera like the A610 or A95, if kept decently well, should last at least 5 years. Because there's less replacement going on, sales will simply slow overall.
But, I also predict that the high end market and DSLR segment will grow because some users want to step up from entry level models. This is a small chunk of users, but a substantial chunk nontheless. I wouldn't be surprised to see triple digit growth for the DSLR market and high double digit growth for prosumer/ultrazoom cameras.
That's all. What do you think? Do you agree with my predictions or will something else happen?